AI tsav lub network kev hloov pauv hloov pauv, thiab laser chips tau ntsib lub sijhawm kub ntawm qhov nce ntim thiab nqi
Tam sim no, lub hom phiaj ntawm kev sib tw hauv pawg AI suav nrog kev hloov pauv loj, hloov zuj zus los ntawm qhov yooj yim "stacking suav lub zog" mus rau "kev sib tw ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv network." Hauv cov ntsiab lus no, tsim kom muaj kev ua haujlwm siab -kev ua tau zoo, siab-bandwidth, thiab qis-latency network architecture tau dhau los ua tus yuam sij rau kev txiav txim siab tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo tshaj ntawm cov ntaub ntawv chaw. Raws li "lub plawv" ntawm qhov kho qhov muag module, lub laser nti ncaj qha txiav txim siab lub electro-optical conversion efficiency thiab cov khoom tsim ntawm optical module, thiab nws txoj hauj lwm zoo tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. CITIC Securities tau taw qhia tias kev lag luam laser nti tau ntsib ob tus neeg tsav tsheb zoo: ntawm ib sab, qhov ntsuas - tawm (kab rov tav nthuav dav) thiab nplai- nce ( ntsug nthuav dav) cov kev xav tau ntawm AI pawg txhawb nqa kev nthuav dav ntawm network super nodes, ncaj qha tsav qhov kev thov rau siab - nrawm optical interconnection; Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov kev hloov pauv sai ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tiam tom ntej (xws li kev hloov pauv ntawm 400G rau 800G, 1.6T) tau ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov cib fim thiab kev sib tw ua ke. Kev lag luam laser chip tam sim no tau qhia txog kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm "kev loj hlob tawg hauv kev thov" thiab "luv-lub sij hawm muab khoom rigidity". Txij li cov MOCVD cov cuab yeej tseem ceeb yog monopolized los ntawm ob peb lub tuam txhab txawv teb chaws, thiab lub voj voog kev tsim khoom yog ntev li 18-24 lub hlis, kev tsim khoom tsis tuaj yeem teb sai sai rau qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam. Raws li kev kwv yees, kev lag luam loj ntawm high-speed laser chips yuav tsum dhia los ntawm US $ 930 lab hauv 2025 mus txog kwv yees li US $ 4.06 nphom hauv 2026, nrog qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Tus neeg muag khoom tus qauv kev lag luam no tau ua rau lub zog sib tham ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, kev pom kev pom tau txuas ntxiv mus rau 2027 lossis 2028, thiab Matthew Effect hauv kev lag luam tau nce ntxiv.
Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tsim cov hauv kev rau hauv cheeb tsam, thiab cov tuam txhab hauv zos ua kom lawv txoj kev tawg
Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev lag luam kev vam meej, Soochow Securities tshwj xeeb tau hais txog "lub sijhawm kub nkag" rau cov tuam txhab laser hauv tsev. Qhov kev loj hlob tsis zoo ntawm lub ntiaj teb AI suav nrog lub zog tsim hluav taws xob tau tsav cov khoom siv kho qhov muag nti kev lag luam mus rau lub sijhawm ntev - lub voj voog nce siab nrog cov yam ntxwv muaj zog Beta. Txawm li cas los xij, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam txawv teb chaws (xws li Lumentum, Coherent, thiab lwm yam) raug txwv los ntawm kev tsim cov fwj thiab ua kom muaj qhov tseem ceeb siab - cov npoo EML chips lossis khi xaj los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom loj xws li NVIDIA, ua rau lub tshuab nqus tsev rau dav dav - lub hom phiaj lossis cov khoom tshwj xeeb - cov khoom tshwj xeeb. Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm tso tawm thiab lub suab nrov ntawm kev thov tawg ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig kev lag luam sib txawv rau cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev uas muaj peev xwm teb tau sai.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, cov kev hloov hauv cov kev qhia tau qhib lub qhov rais tshiab rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev. Nrog rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm 1.6T era, silicon photonics kev daws teeb meem tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb vim lawv cov nqi thiab kev siv hluav taws xob zoo. Lub teeb ci tseem ceeb hauv silicon photonics kev daws teeb meem, CW (nruam nthwv dej) lasers, muaj cov txheej txheem tsim khoom yooj yim dua li EML, decouples qhov kev ua haujlwm, thiab txo qis qhov kev ua haujlwm. Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev xws li Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photonics, Changguang Huaxin, thiab lwm yam tau ua tiav ntau lawm thiab xa khoom ntawm 70mW thiab 100mW CW lasers, thiab qee lub tuam txhab tau tshaj tawm 300mW siab - cov khoom siv fais fab rau CPO teb. Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev tau nrawm lawv txoj haujlwm los ntawm "txoj hauj lwm daig" mus rau "loj- siv kev lag luam loj". Lawv cia siab tias yuav txeeb kev lag luam nrog tus nqi- cov kev pabcuam zoo thiab hloov tau yooj yim hauv qhov kev hloov kho thoob ntiaj teb cov saw hlau, thiab ua tiav qhov dhia los ntawm "ua raws" mus rau "khiav ib sab".
